St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana, has experienced tremendous urbanization, resulting in the loss of timberland. This study's objectives were to develop a model using parish-level data that estimates the probability of urban development in a pine or mixed forest parcel, and to identify the parcels most likely to be developed. The geographic data sets used include satellite imagery from 1981 and 1993, U.S. Census data, population growth estimates from the St. Tammany Parish Government, and road coverages. Logistic regression was used to develop a model that predicts the probability of urban development. Population density, distance to the nearest state or federal highway, distance to the access points to New Orleans, and distance to the nearest interstate interchange all significantly influenced the probability that a parcel would be developed.